Will the next General Election revert to the usual two party dog fight

It was pointed out to me that following the result in Tiverton and Honiton that saw Richard Foord the next election could unseat 91 Conservative candidates

Here's some thoughts on why I think that isn't going to happen, whilst accepting all things are possible 

1) We've been here before

T&H was a very credible performance by LibDems. Richard Foord was an excellent candidate who in another life would probably have been the Tory candidate

Major Dick Foord

The effort required in T&H was enormous and not sustainable on a national GE level

As we saw in 2019, Jo Swinson had similar ideas and higher poll numbers but ultimately was wiped out in the election

November 2019

2) Time

The longer Boris survives the stronger he will get as the anti-Boris sentiment dissipates. Of course if he messes anything else up it's curtains and you do sense he's being kept on a very tight rein (I know the tighter the better)

The next potential by-Election, Somerset and Frome, is even closer and the LibDems were already on the march in 2019. We can expect another ding-dong and I imagine the LibDems will be favourites. But with every by-election blow anger against Boris dissipates a little bit more

Somerset & Frome
Going to be hot

Conservatives have decided to shift to the right to steady nerves and show some clear daylight between the parties as a consequence. This will be backed up with tax cuts in the final 12 months, again to convince the voting public that they are in touch with them

3) First past the post - people want a winner

Our General Election is now basically presidential, it's A v B, the pantomine of PMQs but played out across the country. It's unfair but we are tribal - people like the format, they can understand it, it's just like X Factor, Strictly and people want a clear winner quickly decided

It's a pantomime 

This results in voters leaching out from the centre ground toward either A or B. The appeal for tactical voting will wear off.

Demoralising on the candidate who wins because he has to accept he was chosen on the grounds of what he stood against and not what he stood for

Demoralising for candidates who lose deposits

Demoralising for voters who have to vote for parties whose views they don't necessarily agree with agree with apart from the anti-Boris ticket 

May well come down whether people prefer A v B on a range of issue rather than Boris/not Boris on that narrower issue

It is unfair: at the last GE the Greens polled more than SNP. One gets to run their own country, the other gets to organise Brighton Pride Week

4) Keir Starmer

If Durham brings him down the party will move back towards the left thus increasing polarisation. If not he has the boring tag to deal with plus the "lawyer not a leader" accusation to deal with

Not supporting trade unions is a mistake

A lawyer not a leader

5) Europe

The Lib Dems are split on where they stand on Europe. While Moran has softened the message to FTA only there is a strong groundswell of opinion at the grass roots that it needs to be fully back in - this will be pulled on at the next GE to demonstrate to Brexiteers that the dangers of flirting with parties they don't really know

Having got Brexit done, admittedly warts and all, will a majority of people want to get it undone and then re-entry renegotiated again - we were tired of it 3 years ago, do we really want another 4 years of wattless wrangle

6) LibLab pact

It all comes down to trust - the LibDems were screwed over in 1997 and given the chance I'm sure Labour would do it again. Can a left wing Lab party do business with a middle ground Lib Dem Party who many on the left see as orange Tories

7) Scotland

Don't know but it doesn't make the picture any clearer!

Who does Indyref2 help?

The tale of the Indyref2 (anon)

Och aye the noo

the INDYREF2

for she was always doomed.

Nicola set her afloat

With ne'er but a thought

And now she's sinking too.

You need your finest Scottish accent to get afloat to rhyme with thought, just try your best Tommy Docherty and you should get there.

8) Ultimately

It comes down keeping the anti-Boris sentiment strong for one side (and we can see that in operation) while the Tories demonstrate they are a party who delivers a right wing agenda (and that is the current offensive). That might morph into a more traditional A v B battle by the time of the GE       

It will definitely be interesting

(Blog to be developed)

Creating clear daylight!

Update June 2024

With the General Election in the U.K. just three weeks away I thought I’d better revisit this blog. 

It hasn’t aged well has it? Boris is gone, and is of course half way towards making a comeback, the right wing baton has been passed to Reform and Somerset and Frome has fallen to the Lib Dem’s. Most significantly has been Labour’s rise in popularity, or being least unpopular, such that they appear unassailable come July 4th (Election Day). 

The situation in Scotland has changed dramatically with the SNP managing to inflict maximum self harm on their Independence ambitions. Who would have predicted that?

So it’s going to be bad, it’s going to be Labour with a very healthy majority and then it’s going to be a battle as the left try and take back control of the party to achieve its own ends. 

As well as from forces within the Labour Party, the Government will also face opposition from the official Opposition which will likely be formed from a coalition of Reform and right leaning Conservatives. Rishi Sunak will be long gone, in fact it dawned on me the other day that he called the Election for July 4th so that, realising that defeat was inevitable, he’d have time to get his kids into new schools in America before the start of term in September.

 Author - David Robinson  

David spent approaching 50 years in Her Majesty's Electricity Supply Industry before retiring

He was part of the highly successful design team on the Sizewell B Nuclear Power Station Project before spending 25 years producing safety cases to keep our aging AGR fleet generating for the good of the nation

He is responsible for the Harveywetdog YouTube Channel which he maintains as an outlet for his creative talents

David is currently recovering from blood cancer but refuses to be a victim

All views are his own but might be influenced by the drugs he's currently having to take