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tolerance is about accepting those things you don't agree with, not just accepting those things you do agree with
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Will the next General Election revert to the usual two party dog fight
It was pointed out to me that following the result in Tiverton and Honiton that saw Richard Foord the next election could unseat 91 Conservative candidates
Here's some thoughts on why I think that isn't going to happen, whilst accepting all things are possible
November 2019 |
Somerset & Frome Going to be hot |
It's a pantomime |
Demoralising on the candidate who wins because he has to accept he was chosen on the grounds of what he stood against and not what he stood for
Demoralising for candidates who lose deposits
Demoralising for voters who have to vote for parties whose views they don't necessarily agree with agree with apart from the anti-Boris ticket
May well come down whether people prefer A v B on a range of issue rather than Boris/not Boris on that narrower issue
It is unfair: at the last GE the Greens polled more than SNP. One gets to run their own country, the other gets to organise Brighton Pride Week
4) Keir Starmer
If Durham brings him down the party will move back towards the left thus increasing polarisation. If not he has the boring tag to deal with plus the "lawyer not a leader" accusation to deal with
Not supporting trade unions is a mistake
A lawyer not a leader |
The Lib Dems are split on where they stand on Europe. While Moran has softened the message to FTA only there is a strong groundswell of opinion at the grass roots that it needs to be fully back in - this will be pulled on at the next GE to demonstrate to Brexiteers that the dangers of flirting with parties they don't really know
Having got Brexit done, admittedly warts and all, will a majority of people want to get it undone and then re-entry renegotiated again - we were tired of it 3 years ago, do we really want another 4 years of wattless wrangle
6) LibLab pact
It all comes down to trust - the LibDems were screwed over in 1997 and given the chance I'm sure Labour would do it again. Can a left wing Lab party do business with a middle ground Lib Dem Party who many on the left see as orange Tories
7) Scotland
Don't know but it doesn't make the picture any clearer!
Who does Indyref2 help? |
8) Ultimately
It comes down keeping the anti-Boris sentiment strong for one side (and we can see that in operation) while the Tories demonstrate they are a party who delivers a right wing agenda (and that is the current offensive). That might morph into a more traditional A v B battle by the time of the GE
It will definitely be interesting
(Blog to be developed)
Creating clear daylight! |
Author - David Robinson
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